Attendees at our Foodservice Forecasts event in Battersea got a hot off the press, first look at the new IGD Food-to-Go Forecast.
Nicola Knight, insight manager – eating out and food-to-go at IGD – summarised the data.
Nicola says: “In 2023 our mid-growth scenario sees growth continue in the food-to-go market, but at a much slower rate than last year. While the market returned to its pre-pandemic value last year, much of this growth was driven by inflation. Looking forward, growth will continue but at a slower rate.
“In the short term, this will still be inflation-driven, as consumers cut back on frequency, trade down to cheaper operators, and even trade completely out of food-to-go. However, all sectors are facing different outlooks. Fast food specialists are set to experience the largest growth (in value terms) as their affordable prices attract those looking for food-to-go at a lower cost.”
The biggest winners
The growth of fast food specialists is set to continue as the sector grows and is predicted to remain resilient as trade-downs, reduced visits and spend are offset by those moving in from more premium sectors or full-service restaurants.
Convenience and forecourts are expected to be the other long-term winner. These smaller retail stores will benefit from being accessible for food-to-go missions, value propositioning with meal deals, and being designed with the food-to-go customer in mind, making for a seamless customer experience.
Nicola says: “Looking forward, we expect real growth to return to the food-to-go market in 2024, however this will only represent a small proportion of growth, as continued inflation will dampen demand. Real growth rates will increase in 2025 and 2026 as consumers return to food-to-go as their disposable income starts to build back up, and then will stabilise from 2027 onwards.”
If you couldn’t make the session, but would like a summary of the insight or more information, get in touch.
